![]() This year’s exceedance would very likely be just a temporary breach of the 1.5☌ threshold, but the planet may start regularly exceeding this mark by the 2030s, especially if major emission cuts are not implemented by then. This is the target threshold for the stabilization of the long-term climate agreed upon in international climate negotiations. Hausfather gives roughly a 50% chance 2023 will be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures. Using NASA data, summer 2023 was 1.4☌ above the temperature of the 1880-1899 period, which is commonly called “preindustrial” (the difference between the 1951-1980 baseline reported on the NASA website and the 1880-1899 period is 0.226☌). In our August update we find that 2023 as a whole is virtually certain to be the warmest year on record, with a roughly 50% chance of reaching 1.5C /HvOUUrCQEi- Zeke Hausfather September 13, 2023 Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather (see Tweet below) says 2023 is virtually certain to be the warmest year on record.Īugust 2023 shattered prior August records by ~0.3C, with temperatures at 1.68C above the 1850-1900 period. Note that this NOAA outlook is based purely on statistical comparison to past temperature trends and uses no forward-looking weather or climate model guidance, so it may still be an underestimate. And according to NOAA’s latest Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook and the statistical model it uses, there’s a 93% chance of 2023 being the warmest year on record. The year-to-date period of January-August is the second-warmest on record globally. 2023 now very likely to be Earth’s warmest year on record About 98% of the global population was exposed to extreme heat made at least two times more likely by human-caused global warming during this period. □: /Chje3zZ4A0- World Meteorological Organization September 6, 2023Īccording to an analysis by Climate Central, 3.9 billion people across the world suffered extreme temperatures made at least three times more likely by climate change for over 30 days during the June-August period 1.5 billion people experienced extreme temperatures at this level for all 92 days of the June-August period. As reported in our post on Monday, August ranked as the ninth-warmest August on record in the United States.Įarth had the hottest three-month period on record, with unprecedented sea surface temperatures and extreme weather. August broke the record in South America for greatest monthly departure of temperature from average for any month: +2.4 degrees Celsius (+4.32☏). North America, Asia, Africa, and South America each had their warmest August on record Europe, and Oceania each had their second-warmest August. Land and ocean areas each had their warmest August on record in 2023, and August was the fifth consecutive month with record-high global ocean temperatures, which have been unusually extreme (see Tweet below). Record-warm temperatures covered nearly 13% of the world’s surface. Departure of temperature from average for August 2023, the hottest August for the globe since record-keeping began in 1850. Global temperature analyses extend back to 1850 in the NOAA database. NASA, Berkeley Earth, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service also rated August 2023 as the warmest August on record, crushing the previous August record by a huge margin. August 2023 smashed the record for hottest August in Earth’s history, spiking to a remarkable 1.25 degrees Celsius (2.25☏) above the 20th-century average, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported September 14.
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