Please see additional disclosures below on forecasts and hypothetical performance. In our view, four of those inputs are the most important drivers for the business, as shown in the corresponding colors below.įorecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision and are built on our modeling that reflect our biases and long-term positive view of the company. In this article, we detail our open-source model that presents possible outcomes for Zoom’s business over the next five years.ĪRK’s open-source Zoom model simulates eight independent inputs to forecast a range of price targets. This research extends our 2021 analysis of Zoom’s potential total addressable market opportunity. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision and are built on our modeling that reflect our biases and long-term positive view of the company. Our bear and bull cases are the 25th and 75th percentile values, respectively. Methodologically, we arrive at our base-case share price by averaging ten thousand simulations produced by our Monte Carlo model. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2022įor the benefit of readers, this article presents “expected value” (or “base case”), “bear case,” and “bull case” as a way of contextualizing the meaning of our 2026 share price expectations. We believe that there is a 25% probability that Zoom could be worth $2,000 per share or more in 2026. We believe that there is a 25% probability that Zoom could be worth $700 per share or less in 2026. This projection is our expected value for Zoom’s share price in 2026 based on our Monte Carlo analysis. ![]() Zoom Price Targets: Expected (Base), Bear, and Bull Cases Per Share ARK’s Simulation Outputs As with open-source software, we believe that open-source research will prove to be more robust and accurate than research conducted non-transparently behind closed doors. By sharing our assumptions and modeling methodologies, we hope to solicit constructive feedback and criticism. Īs with our open-source Tesla model, we are publishing our open-source Zoom model to strengthen the quality of our research. Tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes, our bull and bear cases are $2,000 and $700 per share, respectively, as shown below. Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Imagesīy Will Summerlin, Analyst Andrew Kim, Analyst Intern and Brett Winton, Director of ResearchĪccording to ARK’s open-source research and model, Zoom’s ( ZM) share price could approach $1,500, compounding at a 76% annual growth rate, in 2026.
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